Highlights
- •The incidences of IS recurrence and composite endpoint event increased significantly with the increase of ESRS and SPI-II scores.
- •Both ESRS and SPI- II scores could stratify the risk of 5-year IS recurrence and composite vascular events.
- •The predictive powers of ESRS and SPI- II scores are basically the same in Chinese IS patients.
Abstract
Objective
To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Essen Stroke Risk Score and the Stroke
Prognostic Instrument II score on the long-term recurrence in Chinese patients with
acute ischemic stroke.
Methods
Patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled and had completed ESRS and SPI-II
scores. Patients were stratified according to the Essen Stroke Risk Score and Stroke
Prognostic Instrument II score and were followed until stroke recurrence or composite
endpoint event (stroke recurrence, myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death).
We estimated stratified incidence rates and calculated the cumulative risks at 5 years
using Kaplan-Meier estimates. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves
to compare the predictive ability of the Essen Stroke Risk Score and Stroke Prognostic
Instrument II score.
Results
A total of 578 patients completed the follow-up. The cumulative 5-year event rates
were 32.3% (95% CI, 28.2% to 36.4%) for recurrent stroke and 37.9% (95% CI: 33.8%-42.0%)
for composite endpoint event. The cumulative risk of all outcomes increased with increasing
risk scores. AUC for ESRS and SPI-II risk scores were 0.613 (95% CI: 0.565–0.661)
and 0.613 (95% CI: 0.564–0.662) for 5-year stroke recurrence respectively and correspondingly
0.622 (95% CI: 0.576–0.668) and 0.627 (95% CI: 0.581–0.674) for composite endpoint
events.
Conclusion
In Chinese patients with acute ischemic stroke, both Essen Stroke Risk Score and Stroke
Prognostic Instrument II scores could equally stratify the risk of 5-year recurrent
stroke and combined vascular events.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Accepted:
July 13,
2022
Received:
March 14,
2022
Identification
Copyright
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
